Serbia’s estimated 2026 exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is 140.2 million euros, led by iron and steel. Electricity adds 21.8 million euros and has different compliance rules from metals.
Germany and Slovenia were the largest directly recorded EU markets for Serbian aluminium in 2025, with imports worth about €75 million and €72 million. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is making verified product-level emissions data increasingly important in supplier specifications and price negotiations.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates potential 2026 exposure of 140.2 million euros under the EU carbon border mechanism. Importers carry the legal obligations, but contract terms could shift costs to Serbian suppliers and consumers.
Hungary and Romania accounted for nearly 7 TWh of the 9.845 TWh of gross electricity imports attributed to Serbia by EU customs statistics in 2025. The figures do not identify which Serbian generating installations produced the electricity for EU carbon accounting.
Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led imports of Serbian aluminium. The country rankings differ from the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Western Balkan electricity exporters face difficulty proving the emissions and generating origin of power sold into the EU. Serbia’s reported 2025 imports and its role as a transit market highlight the challenge, while its Ministry of Finance estimated electricity-related exposure of around 21.8 million euros for 2026.
EU member states imported €1,150.3 million of electricity from Serbia in 2025, while three flat-steel product families accounted for more than €500 million. The figures can help businesses prioritise CBAM data checks, but broad product codes do not identify covered goods or determine emissions charges.
