Germany bought about €75 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, while Slovenia bought €72 million, making them the largest directly recorded EU markets, according to 2025 customs data. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is making verified product-level emissions data an increasingly important part of supplier specifications and price negotiations alongside alloy, gauge and surface-quality requirements.
EU imports of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles under HS76 were valued at $505.7 million, approximately €448 million, in 2025. France bought €64 million, followed by Croatia at €36 million and Romania at €35 million. These country figures represent customs-entry markets and do not identify the factories that ultimately incorporated the metal into construction systems, machinery or transport equipment.
The largest product category was aluminium plate, sheet and strip under HS7606, worth about €149 million. Imports also included €79 million of containers under HS7612, about €62 million of other articles under HS7616 and around €41 million of profiles under HS7604. The mix indicates trade in processed metal rather than only primary smelting. Serbian aluminium scrap under HS7602 was also traded, but is not covered by the initial CBAM annex and should be excluded from a precise CBAM trade total.
Emissions information affects supplier terms
German and Slovenian processors can aggregate metal purchases and produce components for customers across several EU markets. A Serbian exporter may negotiate with a distributor carrying inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon data. Identifying which party sets the commercial terms can therefore be as important to an exporter as identifying the customs destination.
Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025. The company named Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. Its disclosures indicate industrial export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that specific shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging; those end uses would require additional contract or supply-chain evidence.
The cost passed on to an EU purchaser depends on direct embedded emissions under current CBAM coverage, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains important to overall plant competitiveness and buyers’ broader sustainability requirements, but indirect electricity emissions should not simply be added to the initial CBAM certificate calculation for aluminium. Suppliers also need to distinguish legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon commercial claims.
Exposure estimate relies on default values
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated aluminium CBAM exposure at €19.5 million in 2026 and projected it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. The estimate assumes 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values.
Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change. The ministry models possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but that recognition must not be assumed automatically. The estimate is therefore based on stated assumptions rather than verified emissions and future transaction data.
Suppliers able to allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities and demonstrate reliable physical quality and documentary compliance can help a Serbian rolled-metal producer defend access to European manufacturing chains. A generic low-carbon figure alone does not establish the product-level evidence required by buyers.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer