Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, as exporters face pressure to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The figure is a projection, not a tax bill or recorded revenue, but CBAM-related costs could affect supplier contracts and access to EU customers.
The mechanism covers specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, imports matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes had a border value of €111.23 billion; that amount represents the value of the goods, not carbon certificates owed, and includes imports from exempt source countries. Excluding those origins leaves about €94.74 billion potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports under the relevant codes, while aluminium represented €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin across the aggregate, but its trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other specified products shipped from Serbian businesses.
More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope, according to the Finance Ministry. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, extending the compliance issue across manufacturing rather than limiting it to a few large producers.
Emissions data enters commercial negotiations
The ministry’s baseline scenario puts exposure at €161.4 million in 2029. Its 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36; they are projections, not invoices sent to Serbian companies.
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations. Commercial costs linked to the mechanism can nevertheless be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses, or passed forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Negotiations will depend on whether plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for goods imported in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by 30 September 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route has commercial value only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the importer’s declaration process. The immediate test for Serbian exporters is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain their EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer