Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led imports of Serbian aluminium. The trade patterns show that the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are not necessarily the main buyers of Serbia’s products.
EU imports from Serbia in the HS72 iron and steel category were valued at $640.7 million, approximately €567 million at the 2025 average exchange rate. Poland was the largest direct market, with imports worth €125.3 million, followed by Czechia at €77.8 million and Hungary at €71.9 million.
Italy imported €53.4 million of Serbian HS72 goods, while Slovenia imported €10.0 million. Germany’s direct imports were €4.9 million, far below what its prominence in Serbia’s broader bilateral exports might suggest. Bulgaria and Romania were also significant direct markets, although no import values were specified for them.
The EU-wide CBAM-code rankings measure a broader mix of trade. Italy accounted for 17.6% of the value of EU imports under CBAM codes from all extra-EU origins in 2025, while Germany and the Netherlands each accounted for about 12.7%. Those rankings cover steel, aluminium, fertilisers, power and other goods; they do not describe Serbia-specific purchases.
Aluminium buyers differ from steel markets
EU imports from Serbia in the HS76 aluminium and articles category totalled $505.7 million in 2025, approximately €448 million. Germany was the largest direct reporting market at €75.0 million, followed by Slovenia at €72.2 million and France at €64.0 million.
Poland imported €25.4 million of Serbian aluminium, Hungary €14.3 million and Italy €12.1 million. Czechia’s imports were €6.0 million. Croatia and Romania also followed the three leading markets, but no values were specified for them.
The direct-import values are indicative euro conversions of US-dollar trade values using the 2025 average exchange rate of €1 = $1.1300. HS72 and HS76 are chapter-level product categories. They include goods such as ferrous and aluminium scrap that are outside CBAM Annex I coverage, so their totals indicate trade orientation and a possible compliance pipeline, not the precise value of Serbia’s CBAM-liable sales.
Customs markets do not identify final customers
An eight-digit Combined Nomenclature match is needed to determine whether an individual delivery is covered by CBAM. Customs clearance in a port or distribution hub does not establish where a product is ultimately consumed. The importer of record may be a merchant, service centre or regional distribution company rather than the final industrial customer.
A Serbian steel coil entering Poland could later be rolled, coated or shaped for machinery sold in Germany. Aluminium reported at Slovenia’s border could be shipped onward as a semi-finished product or processed in several countries. As a result, country totals do not identify the ultimate customers for either material.
The direct-import pattern points to manufacturing and distribution clusters in central Europe, rather than showing that the largest EU customs markets buy every Serbian product. Steel suppliers should engage closely with buyers and processors in Poland, Czechia and Hungary, while aluminium exporters should prioritise contract chains in Germany, Slovenia and France.
Exporters need to identify both the party legally responsible for CBAM as the declarant and the industrial customer that controls technical specifications. The entity paying customs-related costs may not be the purchaser that determines a material’s long-term competitiveness.
If importers use conservative default emissions values while awaiting verified plant information, purchase prices could include a carbon premium greater than the producer’s actual emissions would justify. Exporters seeking to defend market share need documented production and emissions information that can travel with the goods, alongside a market price.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer