Western Balkan electricity trade with the European Union recovered but remained below a year earlier as price convergence weakened. CBAM costs exceeded the average price advantage on assessed borders with non-zero default emission values.
EU steel safeguards cap duty-free imports at 18.3 million tonnes a year and impose a 50% duty on volumes above relevant quotas. Alongside CBAM, the rules make shipment-specific compliance and reliable emissions evidence increasingly important for Serbian exporters.
Serbian goods exports rose 8.9% to 26.89 billion euros in January-September 2026, sharpening the competitiveness challenge for electricity-intensive manufacturers. They need affordable, reliable power and emissions and input-origin records that meet the requirements of European Union customers under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
Western Balkan renewable producers must meet contractual, network, timing and verification conditions to qualify electricity exports for actual-emissions treatment under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The Energy Community Secretariat modelled €8.9 million in opportunity costs over six months for a 130 MW wind project unable to sell into higher-priced EU markets.
Scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% in January–September 2026, while day-ahead trading volumes rose 26.7% year on year in the third quarter. The Energy Community Secretariat’s assessment records diverging trends as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs and conditions gain importance in cross-border trade.
EU importers must declare embedded emissions and surrender CBAM certificates for electricity imported in 2026 by 30 September 2027. Certificate purchases start in February 2027, bringing emissions evidence and the allocation of carbon costs into power contracts.
The Energy Community Secretariat called for closer coordination between Western Balkan electricity market integration and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. It warned that poorly aligned rules could deter renewable investment and divide EU and non-EU electricity markets.
CBAM could make revenue from Western Balkan electricity exports to the EU depend on proving actual emissions or facing default treatment. That distinction may affect export prices, project cash flow and lender forecasts for renewable projects in Serbia, Montenegro and the wider region.
Battery storage can make renewable electricity more usable and predictable for Serbian exporters, supporting the economics of renewable projects and energy management for CBAM. It does not itself reduce embedded emissions or replace CBAM evidence requirements.
European Union customs data recorded about €1.015 billion of Serbian iron, steel and aluminium imports in 2025, but generally cannot identify the factories that ultimately use the material. The records also do not show which companies bear Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, rising to €161.4 million in 2029. Exporters will need to give EU buyers timely, verifiable emissions data to support declarations and contract negotiations.
EU importer-mirror data show 567 million euros of Serbian iron and steel purchases in 2025, while a separate EU steel-safeguards regulation cited 760,234 tonnes in its examined product categories. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance projects 89.1 million euros in iron-and-steel CBAM exposure in 2026 under its baseline assumptions.
