Gross scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% in January–September 2026, while regional day-ahead trading grew, according to the Energy Community Secretariat’s third-quarter assessment. The report covers electricity trading in the third quarter and compares the first nine months of 2026 with the same period in 2025. The figures show organised-market activity expanding even as cross-border flows remained below 2025 levels amid carbon-related costs for electricity transactions with the European Union.
Exchanges were 14.3% lower year on year in the third quarter, but recovered 8.6% from the previous quarter. The assessment links the trading conditions to the growing importance of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while noting that the observed changes cannot be attributed exclusively to carbon costs.
Day-ahead volumes rise as margins face carbon costs
Day-ahead trading volumes on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the third quarter, up 26.7% year on year. The increase across the four organised electricity markets contrasted with lower scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets.
Across eight Western Balkan–EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier, the assessment found. A wider wholesale price spread may not provide an attractive commercial margin once applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are taken into account.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The actual cost of electricity imports depends on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Traders increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities, according to the assessment. A spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may no longer make a transaction commercially attractive after those costs and obligations are included.
Export trends diverge by route
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary declined 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. By contrast, scheduled exports from Montenegro to Italy increased approximately 80%.
The differing routes show that CBAM exposure does not determine commercial flows independently of hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements. Generation, demand and available interconnection capacity also influence trading patterns, the Secretariat’s assessment says.
Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and output that can economically reach EU customers. The report identifies a potential structural discount for electricity in exporting markets with carbon-intensive generation mixes, or where low-carbon production does not meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables, the assessment says. For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the challenge is preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to a market in which carbon’s regulatory treatment can determine whether cross-border transactions are profitable.